After an extended time away from the ACC, the Leafs return home to take on their now division rivals. The Lightning have been riding high despite not having the great Steven Stamkos on their roster, while the Leafs stumbled at the tail end of a great road trip. It’s two big divisional points on the line tonight, as the Leafs look to cement their newly gained, third place foothold in the Atlantic.
Team Stats
Toronto
27-2-1-6 (3rd in Atlantic, 12th in NHL)
17-10-1 at home this season
7-5-1 in January
Tampa Bay
31-16-5 (2nd in Atlantic, 8th in NHL)
15-10-2 on the road this season
8-4-1 in January
Scanning the Skaters
The Leafs lineup has been pretty stagnant recently with no changes being made. JVR-Bozak-Kessel continues to roll as the top line. Kessel (24G, 24A) was on a 7 game point streak prior to the loss in Dallas, and he put up two points in Winnipeg on Saturday. Nik Kuliemin (7G, 8A) is relishing the opportunity on the 2nd line, with four points in his last six games. From the blueline, Jake Gardiner (5G, 12A) has 3 points in his last five games, as does captain Dion Phaneuf (5G, 16A). Both of them provided major offence during the 7 game win streak, so their input will be key to getting back on track tonight.
Tampa Bay is lead by Team Canada snub Martin St. Louis (25G, 27A), who is doing just fine without Stamkos. His new centre Tyler Johnson (16G, 18A) is absolutely loving the first line minutes, while Ondrej Palat (11G, 16A) is happily playing with St. Louis, no matter who his centre is. The second line is almost as punchy. Former Red Wing Valtteri Filppula (19G, 21A) is second in Lightning scoring, spending most of his ice time playing with Teddy Purcell (10G, 22A). Victor Hedman (10G, 22A) finally seems to be coming into his own as an NHL defenceman, and leads Tampa D-men in scoring. With Sami Salo (1G, 7A) as his defensive partner he really been able to up the offensive game. Matt Carle (1G, 23A) is the other wellspring of Tampa Bay’s defensive offence.
Team Killers
Martin St. Louis has 18 goals and 32 assists in 49 games against the Leafs, but beyond him, Tampa doesn’t have anyone else.
Manning the Mesh
Ben Bishop, Jonathan Bernier
Jonathan Bernier
1st career start vs. Tampa Bay
17-15-5, 2.61 GAA, .925 sv% – This season
Playing on 2 days rest
Ben Bishop
2-3-0, 2.34 GAA, .872 sv% – Career vs. Toronto
26-6-4, 1.96 GAA, .934 sv% – This season
Playing on 2 days rest
Final Thoughts
Take a look at Tampa Bay’s ExtraSkater page for a minute. Check out their cumulative FF%. Now look at their rolling FF% recently. Now look at their rolling PDO. Give it a minute…. Right? I really hope that clicked in your head. The Lightning are moving at a very Leafy pace recently. They have indeed been getting results without Steven Stamkos, but this has to catch up to them eventually. Their possession numbers have been average at best, (abysmal at worst) in their recent stretch, and their PDO is FAR too high. Expect them to come back to earth shortly.
Martin St. Louis continues to mow down the rest of the NHL since being denied a trip to Sochi. He’s on a ten game point streak that dates back to January 7th, and in that time, he ‘s put up 8 goals and 6 assists. Tyler Johnson is also coming off a hat-trick against Colorado on Saturday.
It can’t be said enough that the Leafs top line has been rolling lately. I already mentioned Kessel’s point streak, but to get more specific, in four of his last five, Phil the Thrill has put up two point games. Bozak has cooled a bit since his return, but 3 points in five games aint bad. JVR has four points in his last five games too. Like I said, they’re rolling. Look for them to make an impact tonight.
Call it a hunch, but Carter Ashton will score tonight.
Puck Drop is at seven, live from the ACC. Good to be home.
Frank on Sports 